Markets won’t fix flood issues, may exacerbate trade problems, says economist

Worldwide markets are a double-edged sword when our part of the world is the one that has catastrophic weather. The Missouri River flooding in the Midwest is part of that issue, according to a Creighton University economist.

“I originally thought there’d be some fairly big impacts,” said Ernie Goss. “The impacts thus far seem to be on the smaller side. It does tend to push up prices for those that continue to have the commodities, but not enough to offset the losses. It’s more localized than a lot of farmers in this part of the country would like to think.”

Because of countries like Brazil and Russia still having lots to sell, the market itself doesn’t need as much production.

“Supplies still remain bountiful globally,” said Goss. “That’s keeping prices down below what we’d like to see. The floods are not going to push up prices enough for farmers to have a bountiful season.”

There’s also a danger that between flood damage and trade wars forcing countries into new markets, that those countries won’t return to the U.S. in the long run for commodities.

“That’s hard to get back those customers,” said Goss. “If we do get a trade deal from China, the trade deal, once it’s announced, is probably not going to have as much of an impact as you’d like to see.”

It’s not clear if, or when, such a deal may come through.