The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a Moderate Risk of all forms of severe weather, including tornadoes for this afternoon and tonight.
“Northeast Kansas, extreme northeast Kansas, parts of northern Missouri and southern Iowa, that’s the hotbed for the tornado activity today,” said meteorologist Dan Holiday.
A low-pressure system will interact with an outflow boundary created by earlier storms to be the point for storm initiation
“We have low pressure at the surface that’s going to move into north central Kansas and plenty of warm, moist, rich air coming in from the south and typically, all those ingredients you look for in tornadoes,” said Holiday. “The wind fields in the atmosphere way up above are not perfect for a big tornado day.”
The issue is even a 10 percent risk area like the one put out by the SPC is statistically significant.
“They’re just enough that there is at least a chance of tornadoes, especially as we head into this evening,” said Holiday. “There’s going to be a small window of a few hours where we think that it will actually increase a bit,”
Between late this afternoon and shortly after dusk is the prime time for tornado development, if there is any. There is also a statistically significant risk of hail and severe winds with these storms, even if tornadoes do not form.
Graphic Courtesy: Storm Prediction Center